Live & running — Polymarket quantitative bots
Automated bots that find
real edge on Polymarket.
I build fully backtested, paper-validated prediction market bots — from your strategy idea to live execution. F1, weather, sports, crypto, any vertical.
64%
F1 ROI
2,602
Markets scored
450+
Models tested
▸ Start a project
No financial advice · Paper trading validated · Past results do not guarantee future returns
Ready to build your edge?  ·  F1 64% ROI · 2,602 weather markets · 450+ models tested
▸ Start a project
Open for new projects — Polymarket strategy → backtest → live bot ▸ Get in touch
Polymarket Bot Development — Strategy to Live

You have the edge.
I build the system.

You bring a trading idea. I turn it into a fully backtested, optimized, and paper-validated Polymarket bot — ready for live deployment. End-to-end: data pipeline, model, backtest engine, paper trading, live execution.

64%
F1 ROI
2,602
Markets tracked
450+
Models evaluated
144
Validated bets
F1 markets Weather markets Sports markets Crypto / macro Custom strategies Any Polymarket vertical Live & running
▸ Start a project See live results ⬡ New to Polymarket?
00 Who's building this
AB
Arthur Breguez // @breguez-ai
Quant researcher and software engineer focused on prediction market automation. I build end-to-end ML pipelines that identify and trade real edges on Polymarket — from raw data ingestion through live CLOB execution. Currently running two live systems: an F1 multitask neural network (64% ROI, 144 bets) and a weather ensemble model covering 2,602 markets across 30 cities. All models paper-validated before any capital is deployed.
in LinkedIn ⬡ GitHub 🤗 HuggingFace ▸ Live lab dashboard
04.5 Pricing
RESEARCH
$1,200 flat
Strategy feasibility + backtest report
  • Hypothesis scoping + data audit
  • Full walk-forward backtest engine
  • PnL curve, Sharpe, drawdown, Brier
  • Champion model + benchmark leaderboard
  • Written report: edge found or not
  • Delivered in ~1 week
Best if you want to validate an idea before committing to full build
▸ Start research
MOST POPULAR
FULL BOT
$3,500 flat
Complete system — strategy to live
  • Everything in Research, plus:
  • Optimized champion model (autoresearch)
  • Paper trading pipeline + validation gate
  • Live CLOB execution bot
  • Bet sizing, edge thresholds, GTC/FAK/FOK
  • Auto-retraining crons + HF model backup
  • Full source code, no lock-in
  • Delivered in ~4 weeks
Includes paper trading validation — no live capital until edge is confirmed
▸ Start full build
RETAINER
$600/mo
Ongoing support after delivery
  • Weekly model retraining on new data
  • Polymarket API change adaptations
  • Edge monitoring + drift alerts
  • New market expansion (same vertical)
  • Priority response (<24h)
  • Monthly performance report
Optional add-on after Full Bot delivery. Cancel anytime.
▸ Add retainer
All prices in USD. Research fee is credited toward Full Bot if you proceed. Custom scope or enterprise pricing available on request.
01 How it works — strategy to live in 5 phases
1
Strategy Brief DAY 1
You describe your edge hypothesis in plain language — no technical knowledge required. "I think F1 pole sitter wins more often when it rains" or "Temperature markets are mispriced on weekend afternoons." I scope the project, identify data sources, and map the hypothesis to testable conditions.
natural language brief feasibility assessment data availability check
2
Data Pipeline & Backtest WEEK 1
Full data pipeline: market discovery, price history ingestion, feature engineering, and a no-lookahead walk-forward backtest engine. You get a PnL curve, win rate, Sharpe ratio, drawdown, and calibration metrics — everything needed to know if the edge is real.
Polymarket CLOB history walk-forward backtest PnL / Sharpe / drawdown calibration (Brier / ECE)
3
Model & Optimization WEEK 2
Parameters are optimized using Bayesian search or hill-climbing autoresearch. Models range from calibrated LightGBM ensembles to PyTorch multitask networks. Champion is selected on quote-proxy PnL (simulated real CLOB execution) — not just raw backtest metrics.
LightGBM / PyTorch Bayesian hyperopt autoresearch loop quote-proxy PnL champion promotion gate
4
Paper Trading Validation WEEK 3–4
The champion model runs live against real Polymarket orderbooks — placing paper bets with no real capital at risk. I monitor edge decay, calibration drift, and fill rate. Only models that pass a rigorous gate (minimum bet count, ROI threshold) advance to live deployment.
live orderbook scoring edge monitoring promotion gate (80+ bets) fill rate analysis
5
Live Deployment & Monitoring ONGOING
Automated live trading on Polymarket CLOB with configurable bet sizing, edge thresholds, and GTC/FAK/FOK order types. Includes scheduled cron automation, weekly model retraining as new data arrives, and alerts for signals and fills.
Polymarket CLOB execution GTC / FAK / FOK orders auto-retraining crons HuggingFace model backup
02 What gets delivered
Data Infrastructure
  • Polymarket market discovery + price history ingestion
  • External data pipeline (weather, sports APIs, etc.)
  • DuckDB / Parquet warehouse with versioned bronze/silver/gold layers
  • Automated backfill and incremental sync crons
Research & Modeling
  • Walk-forward backtest engine (no lookahead)
  • Probabilistic model with isotonic calibration
  • Autoresearch loop (hill-climbing hyperparameter search)
  • Benchmark leaderboard with qp_pnl, Brier, ECE
Trading System
  • Edge calculator vs live Polymarket CLOB prices
  • Bet sizing with configurable risk parameters
  • Paper trading pipeline with settlement tracking
  • Live execution with guardrails and daily loss limits
Ops & Monitoring
  • Automated cron pipeline (data sync → score → trade)
  • Weekly model retraining on new data
  • Model artifact backup to HuggingFace (private repo)
  • Full source code delivered — no lock-in
03 Market verticals I work with
🏎️
Formula 1
Race winner · Pole position · H2H driver matchups · Constructor markets
🌡️
Weather
Temperature max/min · Precipitation · Extreme weather events · 30 cities covered
⚽
Sports
Match winner · Over/under · Player props · Tournament outcomes
🏛️
Politics & Macro
Election outcomes · Fed decisions · Economic indicators · Policy markets
₿
Crypto & Finance
Price targets · ETF approvals · Protocol events · Liquidation markets
⚡
Custom
Any Polymarket market family with enough historical price data for backtesting
04 Live proof-of-work
▸ PnL CALCULATOR — scale to your bet size Drag to see projected returns at your position size
$50/bet
⚠ Projected values scale linearly from backtested results (base: $5/bet). Past performance does not guarantee future results. All figures from walk-forward backtests and paper trading — no real capital deployed.
Combined projected PnL (F1 + Weather)
+$2,229
at $50/bet · backtested + paper validated · 2 market verticals
64%
F1 model ROI
(bet-size independent)
+$219
F1 Walk-Fwd PnL
144 bets · 64% ROI · 27 GPs
64%
F1 ROI
Brier score 0.077
+$2,010
Weather Gate PnL
3 cities · gate=PASS
2,602
Markets Monitored
30 cities · daily scoring
450+
Models Evaluated
champion gated (rigorous)
144
Validated Bets
paper · 80-bet gate minimum
$ status --champion --all --verbose
● F1 MultitaskQR r4 ROI=64.3% bets=144 Brier=0.077 gate=PASS [CHAMPION]
● TMAX tuned_ensemble qp_pnl=+$201 cities=3 gate=PASS 30 cities scored [CHAMPION]
● GFS forecasts sync=LIVE lag=<15min markets=2602 [STREAMING]
● ECMWF ensemble ifs025 + aifs025 neighbor_spread=active [STREAMING]
● Crons scheduled retrain=post-Miami-GP cadence=weekly [ACTIVE]
 
$ models --leaderboard --top 5
rank model qp_pnl roi brier status
──── ──────────────────── ──────── ─────── ────── ──────
1 MultitaskQR r4 +$21.91 64.3% 0.077 CHAMPION
2 lgbm_isotonic +$18.40 58.1% 0.089 bench
3 qr_ensemble_v2 +$15.22 51.7% 0.094 bench
4 xgb_calibrated +$12.88 44.3% 0.101 bench
5 logistic_baseline +$6.11 21.0% 0.118 bench
 
$ markets --live --count
2,602 weather markets active across 30 cities — scoring every 15 min
F1 Miami GP Sprint weekend — signals queued for 01/May
models published to huggingface.co/artbreguez ✓
▸ Live dashboard → ▸ F1 model (HuggingFace) ↗ ▸ TMAX model (HuggingFace) ↗ ▸ GitHub ↗
05 FAQ
Do I need a technical background to work with you?▶
No. You just need the trading idea and market knowledge. I handle everything on the technical side — data pipeline, model training, backtest engine, and live deployment. The only thing I need from you is a clear hypothesis: why do you think this market is mispriced, and what information do you think predicts the outcome?
How long does a full project take?▶
Typically 3–5 weeks from brief to live deployment. Week 1: data pipeline + initial backtest. Week 2: model optimization and champion selection. Weeks 3–4: paper trading validation. Week 5: live deployment and monitoring setup. Timeline depends on data availability and market complexity.
What if the backtest shows no edge?▶
That's valuable information too. A rigorous no-edge result saves you from deploying real capital on a losing strategy. I'll share the full analysis: what was tested, why it didn't work, and whether there are related hypotheses worth exploring. If the initial hypothesis fails, we can pivot to adjacent ideas within the same market vertical.
Do you trade with my capital or your own?▶
I build and deliver the system — you control the capital and keys. The bot runs on your infrastructure (or a VPS I set up for you) with your Polymarket wallet credentials. I don't have custody of any funds. Live trading starts only after paper trading validates the edge, and always with your explicit approval.
What's included after delivery?▶
Delivery includes full source code, documented pipelines, automated retraining crons, and a private HuggingFace model backup. I also offer ongoing support: model retraining on new data, adapting to Polymarket API changes, and expanding to new markets as your strategy evolves.
Which Polymarket market types work best for bots?▶
Markets with structured, repeating outcomes where external data has predictive power. F1 (race results + qualifying data), weather (forecast models vs market prices), and sports (statistical models vs public betting odds) are proven verticals. Markets with thin liquidity or purely sentiment-driven outcomes are harder to model systematically.
How are results verified — is this real trading?▶
Results shown are from walk-forward backtests (F1: 27 GPs of historical data, no lookahead) and paper trading against live Polymarket orderbooks. The PnL calculator scales these results proportionally to illustrate what different bet sizes would yield. All model artifacts are published to HuggingFace for transparency. Real capital deployment follows paper trading validation — always.
Available for new projects
Let's build your edge.

Describe your strategy idea and the market you're targeting.
I'll assess feasibility and outline a project plan within 48h.

✓ Responds within 48h
✓ No upfront commitment
✓ Full source code delivered
✓ Paper-validated before live
arthurbreguez@gmail.com linkedin.com/in/breguez-ai
Paper trading validation required before any live capital deployment.
All model artifacts delivered as source code to the client — no lock-in.

By engaging, you acknowledge the Disclaimer & Engagement Policy.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. No financial advice.
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