Disclaimer & Engagement Policy

Nothing on this website, including the hire page, dashboard, wiki, model outputs, PnL projections, research notes, or any communications from Arthur Breguez, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

All content is provided for informational and illustrative purposes only. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. If you require financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor in your jurisdiction.

The PnL figures and ROI percentages shown on this site are derived from:

• Walk-forward backtests — historical simulations using past Polymarket price data with strict no-lookahead methodology. Backtests cannot account for market impact, liquidity constraints, or changing market dynamics.
• Paper trading — simulated bets placed against live Polymarket orderbooks with no real capital. Paper trading does not account for slippage, partial fills, or execution latency at scale.
• The PnL calculator — values are scaled linearly from base backtest results. Scaling is linear and does not model position-size effects, market impact, or reduced edge at larger bet sizes.

No real capital has been deployed in the results shown. All figures are simulation-based. Actual live trading results will differ, potentially significantly, from backtested or paper-traded results.

Arthur Breguez offers software development services for prediction market automation. Specifically:

• What is provided: data pipelines, backtesting engines, predictive models, paper trading infrastructure, and live execution bots — delivered as working software.
• What is not provided: financial advice, capital management, custody of funds, or guarantees of profit. I do not manage client funds.
• Client responsibility: You are fully responsible for all trading decisions, capital deployment, compliance with applicable laws, and any outcomes resulting from use of delivered software.
• No profit guarantee: Commissioning a bot does not guarantee positive returns. The backtest and paper trading pipeline is designed to identify edges, but edges can erode, markets change, and losses are possible.

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market protocol. Access to and use of Polymarket is subject to its own Terms of Service and may be restricted in certain jurisdictions (including the United States).

It is your responsibility to ensure that your use of any software delivered under these services complies with the laws and regulations of your jurisdiction. Arthur Breguez makes no representations about the legality of prediction market trading in your location and accepts no liability for regulatory non-compliance by the client.

Software delivered under these services is general-purpose tooling. The client is solely responsible for how the software is used.

To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, Arthur Breguez shall not be liable for:

• Any financial losses incurred through use of delivered software, models, or strategies
• Losses resulting from market changes, edge erosion, or model degradation after delivery
• Losses resulting from Polymarket API changes, smart contract behavior, or platform downtime
• Indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages of any kind
• Any loss exceeding the total fees paid for the specific project engagement

All software is delivered "as is." Clients are encouraged to thoroughly review, test, and paper-trade any delivered system before deploying real capital, regardless of backtest results.

The following conditions apply to all project engagements:

• Paper trading gate: All models must pass a minimum validation gate (80+ bets, positive PnL, minimum ROI threshold) in paper trading before live deployment is recommended. Live deployment is always at the client's discretion and risk.
• No fund custody: At no point does Arthur Breguez take custody of, or have access to, client funds or Polymarket wallet credentials. The client controls all keys and capital at all times.
• Source code ownership: Upon full payment, the client receives full ownership of all delivered source code. There is no ongoing lock-in or licensing dependency.
• Confidentiality: Project details, strategies, and client information are kept strictly confidential and will not be shared or published without explicit written consent.
• Scope changes: Changes to project scope beyond the agreed brief are subject to revised timelines and fees, to be agreed in writing before implementation.
• Refund policy: Milestone-based payments are non-refundable once the corresponding deliverable has been accepted. Partial refunds may be considered if a project is cancelled before a milestone is reached.

This website is hosted on GitHub Pages and does not collect, store, or process any personal data directly. No cookies, tracking pixels, or analytics scripts are used.

When you contact via email (arthurbreguez@gmail.com), your email and any information you include in your message will be used solely to respond to your inquiry and scope a potential project. Email data is not shared with third parties.

Model artifacts published to HuggingFace are stored on HuggingFace's infrastructure and subject to HuggingFace's Privacy Policy.

These terms are governed by the laws of Brazil. Any disputes arising from engagements shall be resolved under Brazilian jurisdiction, unless otherwise agreed in writing between the parties.

If any provision of these terms is found to be unenforceable, the remaining provisions continue in full force and effect.